CORONAVIRUS: Some Numbers

Let us be very, very clear: The death rate from COVID19 in the U.S. is 1.8%. In other words, if you get the disease, you have better than a 98% chance of survival.

It is reported that 547,649 people have died from COVID19 in the U.S. That number is arguable, but let's accept it for this exercise. It is also reported that 29,632,042 people have tested positive for the virus. Okay, this is easy! If you divide 547,649 deaths by 29,632,042 infectees, you get 0.0181...or 1.8%. That's how we derived the above survival rate. 100% minus 1.8% equals 98.2%.

But wait, there's more! Estimates are that, over and above those who've tested positive for coronavirus, X-number of people have it but don't have any symptoms and haven't been tested. Some experts put that number at "8X" the number of who have tested positive. But let's be conservative and just use a multiplier of 5X. Okay, so if we multiply 29,632,042 by 5, we get 148,160,210 people. Stay with me. Now if we take the number of deaths (547,649) and divide by 148,160,210, we get an actual death rate of...(drumroll)...0.37%. *POINT* three-seven percent....basically just under four-tenths of one percent. So turn it around. It means that your actual survival rate from COVID19 is in the area of 99.6%. Pretty good odds, I'd say, even without a vaccine that is said to be 95% effective.

Will those number I used go up? Certainly - we're not done with this virus yet. But I believe the relationship of those numbers will remain the same. Fake news outlets like the fear-mongering CNN and such are trying very hard to panic us into thinking that COVID19 is some horrible, deadly threat to humanity. The hard numbers tell a different story.

I do not get a flu shot every year, because I never get the flu. Apparently, I have a pretty good immune system or something, but seriously, I never get sick. So guess what...I won't be getting the coronavirus vaccine either. I just don't believe that COVID19 presents that much of a threat to our health. At least, not if you go by our government's own numbers.

WHAT ABOUT THE FLU?

We do know that a number of people die from the regular ol' flu each year. The trouble is, we really don't know how many people get the flu each year, because so many people simply self-medicate without going to the doctor. So it's very hard to come up with a reliable death rate for the flu. Any number would be a guess. Similarly, we really don't know for certain how many people have the coronavirus but don't have any symptoms and have not been tested. Again, it's a guess. You might point to positivity-rates of those who do get tested, but I would counter that people who have no symptoms are very unlikely to be tested in the first place unless it's a job-requirement. And so many of the "asymptomatics" remain invisible to the statisticians. But either way... If you go by the numbers we "know" (i.e. number of people who tested positive and number of deaths attributable to COVID19), the threat of you dying from this disease is tiny. This is obviously no comfort to anyone who's had a family member die of the coronavirus. But as horrible as that is, I think the threat to the general public is vastly overblown. Why is this? I do not know.

CORONAVIRUS: Hey Abbott...!

In discussing the coronavirus pandemic, one of my friends sighed, "I just want this to be over." A sentiment shared by all of us, I'm sure. I expressed my doubts that all this will ever be "over." I think that mask will still be required in certain places from now until...like...forever. And as a society we will always be suspicious when we're in the presence of someone with a cough or cold. Our economy may never fully recover and return to the pre-pandemic glory days. To the dismay of parents nationwide, kids may never go away to college anymore now that online classes are not only "a thing" the *the* thing. The nests will stay full and jobless junior may never move out, living in the basement, playing video games and intending on inheriting the house upon his parents' (surely accelerated) demise.

On the other hand, some "medical experts" say that the coronavirus will become like the common cold or flu: an annoyance we'll all just have to live with (pun intended) as we move forward. It is obviously not a hugely fatal disease - I think we can admit that now - although a shit-ton of people have died from it worldwide (or so they say). Older people with the infamous "comorbidities" will probably always have to be cautious and accept the fact that they may still get the COVID and they may still die "from" it, especially if they're in their 90's and get hit by a bus. My advice: Don't get old.

Apparently, Texas Governor Abbott feels the same way as my fatigued friend in the first paragraph. Abbott is lifting the mask mandate in his state, and has expressed his desire to get Texas 100% open, 100% now. This, even as the scaredy-cat mayor of Austin is calling on the governor to continue and extend existing restrictions.

So is this smart of Governor Abbott? The spread of the disease does appear to be abating here in the U.S., but Italy and Brazil are seeing increases in the number of new coronavirus cases. And our amigos in France? After peaking at nearly 89,000 new cases per day in early November of 2020 (merde!), France has seen a decrease but is still chugging along at around 20,000 new cases per day, showing no signs of slowing down.

So...I dunno. The sad, ugly truth is probably that X-number of people were always going to die from this coronavirus and, vaccine or no vaccine, there wasn't a whole lot any government could do about it. And so we'll see - probably shortly - if Texas Governor Abbott is right or wrong.