Both Uber and Lyft are complaining that they do not have enough drivers. Every time I log-on, I'm bombarded with bonus offers for recommending other drivers sign-up. Not only that, but it's been really busy lately. However, many of the trip requests I get when I'm out and about are often 18 or 20 minutes away. (I always reject them; no need to drive for 18 minutes to pick up a passenger who's only going five minutes from his house.) Uber came out with a notice to us drivers that said, basically, Enjoy the extra money now, chumps, because once the pandemic is over and things get back to normal, your earnings are going to decrease!
Uber is operating under some assumptions. A couple of them are, I believe, false. First, they evidently believe that their drivers are standing-down out of fear of catching the coronavirus. They also assume that some number of regular Uber drivers have switched over to delivering food (which is correct). But they also feel that once the pandemic is over, food deliveries will be reduced since people will stop ordering out. Thus, drivers will return to actual passenger runs.
I think they're wrong.
Not so long ago, generally (in most of the country that wasn't New York City), just about the only food you could have delivered to your house was pizza. People certainly could just drive out to the pizza place and pick it up themselves. But they put up with the extra cost of having it delivered due to the huge convenience it provided. Now we can get just about anything we want delivered to the house. Even restaurants like Texas Roadhouse and Olive Garden (which previously didn't even have the availability for you to order to-go food over the phone or internet and have it delivered) have stepped up their game. It's great to be able to order stuff that previously would have required a visit to the actual restaurant. The future is now!
A cabdriver friend of mine recently ditched the taxi and switched over to doing ride-share. He did it for a couple of weeks before concluding that it was too many miles of driving for too little money. He switched over to delivering food and, voila!, now he makes more money and actually drives less. Most likely, he won't come back to delivering people. I have heard this before from other drivers: "Delivering food simply gives you better revenue-per-mile." Which it does. (Me, I just don't want to deliver food - I like the people aspect of ride-share driving too much.)
Very simply, Uber and Lyft are going to have to pay their drivers more to entice them to keep working on the "legacy" apps and not defect to the food delivery side. To do that, Uber will probably have to raise their rates. But remember, one of the big selling points of Uber was that it was "cheaper than a taxi." Nevertheless, rates have come up. Uber/Lyft may still be cheaper than a taxi, but not by much. And in some markets, not at all.
Personally, I believe that customers have become so accustomed to using Uber/Lyft that they will pay...whatever. Even if ride-share rates rise above those of conventional taxis, people will pay them. There are a number of reasons: Convenience of using the app; knowing who your driver will be, seeing his picture, and knowing what kind of car he's driving; knowing that the car you'll be riding will be clean and well-maintained; seeing the car's progress as it comes towards you; knowing the price of the ride up-front; and not having to pay for the ride while in the car. These are not small things. And exactly none of them have been available to a customer calling a conventional cab.
So there is a huge benefit to using ride-share. And I think people will realize that it's a premium service which justifies premium rates. Customers have been lucky that the "introductory" ride-share rates have been so low. But now that the taxi industry has pretty much been made obsolete, the party is over. Will some riders rebel and go back to regular taxi services? Perhaps. I could see that happening in certain areas of town where price-point is most important.
In any event, I am enjoying the fruits of this "driver shortage" right now. It means that I do not have to work as long to make my meager target daily revenue. Less work for more money = good thing for Bob. I'm not worried that the coronavirus pandemic will suddenly be over and Uber/Lyft drivers will rush back to work. I only envision that happening if food deliveries drastically drop off - but as I said, I don't think that's going to happen.
