Every area of the country has its downside. California has earthquakes and mudslides and forest fires. The midwest has tornadoes. And New Jersey has...well...just being New Jersey is bad enough!
Down here on the gulf coast we get hurricanes. (We don't even worry about tropical storms.) During hurricane season (June through October), we anxiously watch the tropics for these inexplicable low-pressure waves that are spawned in Africa and then come barrelling westbound across the Atlantic.
A wave will morph into a "depression," then grow into a tropical storm and ultimately a hurricane. Once a storm enters the eastern Caribbean, weatherguessers will then start to predict where it's going to go. Might it turn and go up the Atlantic coast? Or will it come straight across into the Gulf of Mexico? Here in Pensacola, Florida, it is those latter ones that capture our attention.
The various weather services - and there are many - produce predictions of a storm's track. They are collected into what are called the "spaghetti models" because if you superimpose them onto a map it looks kind of like a bowl of spaghetti. People more knowledgeable than me then choose the path-model they think is the most likely candidate.
Spaghetti Models from KHOU Houston
Right now we're looking at Hurricane Delta, which at the moment is a "strong Cat-2" storm down by the Yucatan Peninsula. Forecasters say that it will intensify into a Cat-3 or Cat-4! Its current track takes it into the Gulf of Mexico. Then it's anyone's guess as to exactly where it will make landfall, except that it will be along the gulf coast somewhere, probably around New Orleans...and that could be 100 miles east or west of there. As the crow flies, Pensacola is about 150 miles east of New Orleans.
There are many variables when it comes to hurricanes. Overall strength, actual track and speed of the storm across the ground are the most obvious. But upper-level steering currents and the temperature of the Gulf of Mexico also play a part. And right now, the Gulf is pretty warm.
So yeah, we're a little concerned. If there is anything hopeful at all with the approach of a Cat-3 hurricane, it is that the last hurricane took down the weaker trees and branches. So maybe this next one won't cause so many trees to fall on so many powerlines. That might be the only good news, but we'll take it!
4 comments:
Up here, hurricanes are just something to take our minds off political spots on the evening news. Thus far this season, the national weather guys have under rated every hurricane that has hit our gulf short by a 1 or 2 category points. So if they are saying this thing will be a category 3, I think I would be extremely worried since it will most likely end up a 4 or a 5.
I always keep a close eye on the Gulf storms since, depending on their track, we can get a fair amount of rain in south Arkansas. Laura was the first time I've ever known a storm to remain a hurricane through its entire path up LA and still weigh in as a tropical storm when it got to us. We got quite a bit of rain from Beta, too, but not much wind.
I have a brother in Fairhope AL, so I'm sure he's keeping an eye on Delta, as well. They got punched on three sides by Sally.
Ed and Kelly, it is true that the weatherguessers all act with some degree of hubris. They really blew it with Sally. On Sunday, that storm was "parked" out in the Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles south of Pensacola, oscillating back and forth at "2 mph" which really isn't moving at all. The weather experts were still saying that it would go into Louisiana. But my friends and I, who've all lived here for a while said, "That thing could go ANYWHERE!" And it did. Here in Pensacola, we were prepared for a Cat-1 or tropical storm. We were *not* prepared for the Cat-2 bombardment that Sally delivered. We should have been.
It would be far better for them to every once in a while shrug and admit they really don't know what a storm is going to do in advance. It would give them a lot more credibility.
With Sally's wounds so fresh in our minds, nobody here in my town is downplaying or minimizing it. There have been so many auxiliary generators sold here in Pensacola that the city might actually get *noisier* when the power goes out.
We’re thinking about you, Bob, and hoping you withstand this latest storm.
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