Every area of the country has its downside. California has earthquakes and mudslides and forest fires. The midwest has tornadoes. And New Jersey has...well...just being New Jersey is bad enough!
Down here on the gulf coast we get hurricanes. (We don't even worry about tropical storms.) During hurricane season (June through October), we anxiously watch the tropics for these inexplicable low-pressure waves that are spawned in Africa and then come barrelling westbound across the Atlantic.
A wave will morph into a "depression," then grow into a tropical storm and ultimately a hurricane. Once a storm enters the eastern Caribbean, weatherguessers will then start to predict where it's going to go. Might it turn and go up the Atlantic coast? Or will it come straight across into the Gulf of Mexico? Here in Pensacola, Florida, it is those latter ones that capture our attention.
The various weather services - and there are many - produce predictions of a storm's track. They are collected into what are called the "spaghetti models" because if you superimpose them onto a map it looks kind of like a bowl of spaghetti. People more knowledgeable than me then choose the path-model they think is the most likely candidate.
Spaghetti Models from KHOU Houston
Right now we're looking at Hurricane Delta, which at the moment is a "strong Cat-2" storm down by the Yucatan Peninsula. Forecasters say that it will intensify into a Cat-3 or Cat-4! Its current track takes it into the Gulf of Mexico. Then it's anyone's guess as to exactly where it will make landfall, except that it will be along the gulf coast somewhere, probably around New Orleans...and that could be 100 miles east or west of there. As the crow flies, Pensacola is about 150 miles east of New Orleans.
There are many variables when it comes to hurricanes. Overall strength, actual track and speed of the storm across the ground are the most obvious. But upper-level steering currents and the temperature of the Gulf of Mexico also play a part. And right now, the Gulf is pretty warm.
So yeah, we're a little concerned. If there is anything hopeful at all with the approach of a Cat-3 hurricane, it is that the last hurricane took down the weaker trees and branches. So maybe this next one won't cause so many trees to fall on so many powerlines. That might be the only good news, but we'll take it!
