I'm going to go out on a limb here - and actually it's not much of a limb. I predict that everything will be opened back up by the end of April. We're talking restaurants, bars, barbershops (dear God, PLEASE)...beaches, bowling alleys, strip clubs...uhhh, oh yeah, and churches...will all be reopened. Here's why:
EITHER...
Scenario #1: The COVID-19 disease is MUCH more contagious than previously thought and has infected far more asymptomatic people than we are seeing in the "confirmed-positive" case numbers. If this is true, then the coronavirus is orders of magnitude less deadly than they warned us about.
OR...
Scenario #2: The number of "infected-but-asymptomatic" people is only slightly higher than the "confirmed-positive" case numbers. If this is true, then COVID-19 is not that contagious at all, and is far less deadly than they warned us about.
Either way, this was not a modern day Black Plague. And I think that The People (you know, the powers-that-be's) are seeing this as well. Furthermore, I believe they know that if we don't get people out and working and mingling again (and yes, perhaps getting sick), we'll never develop the immunities and antibodies to fight this disease when it comes back in the fall.
Oh, and it WILL come back in the fall! And if we don't have a vaccine by then, what are we gonna do, go through this nationwide shut-down drill all over again? Hah. Not likely. What was that song by The Who?*
And so I think this will all be "over" soon. I put that word in quotes because it's not like someone will throw a big switch in Washington (or wherever) and we'll magically go back to The Way It Was In Ye Olden Days Before Coronavirus. No, there will be a new normal, and we don't know what that looks like yet. But as long as Sammy's "Gentlemen's" Club here in Pensacola is back open, I'm good. I've got women named after expensive automobiles to support!
Answer: It was "Won't Get Fooled Again" from their 1971 album, "Who's Next." (No, they did not use a question mark, those punctuation-eschewing bastards. Although, come to think of it, they also could have used an exclamation point.)
Who Am I?
- Bob Barbanes:
- A nobody; a nitwit; a pilot; a motorcyclist; a raconteur; a lover...of life - who loves to laugh, who tries to not take myself (or anything) too seriously...just a normal guy who knows his place in the universe by being in touch with my spiritual side. What more is there?
8 comments:
I agree, no Black Plague, but a pretty horrendous respiratory illness that affects different people different ways and at different levels of severity. I’ve tried hard to listen to and appreciate the science, and govern myself accordingly. I’m fortunate to have a job I can do remotely and to work for a company that has the technology to support the large number of us who are doing it. I tend to think the return to normal, whatever that is, will be more gradual, depending on where a person lives. But I’m just one guy with an opinion.
But Bob, see, that's the thing! Given what we know about the coronavirus right now, open the damn economy back up! People who are in those at-risk groups - and they know who they are - should STILL practice self-isolation and social-distancing - -at least for another month or so! The rest of us can go about our lives like we used to. Some people will get sick - just like in any bad flu season. Some people might die - just like in any bad flu season. But society will develop some amount of "herd immunity" which will be necessary WHEN this virus comes back around in the fall.
We were all sent into this panic-mode because of what we heard about the people who get the most severe case of COVID-19. Yes, being unable to even catch a breath and drowning in your own lung fluid is a horrible, horrible way to die. Nobody wants that. But the hard numbers show that the percentage of people who actually die that way is very, very small.
And perhaps that number will be even smaller if more effective treatment protocols are adopted. Like you, I'm no doctor, but I've read other doctors (albeit controversial) recommendations that putting people on ventilators is the *wrong* thing to do - that they damage the lungs more than help them recover - that getting highly-oxygenated blood into the system is more important than forcing oxygen into the lungs that are having a hard time processing it anyway. I dunno…
At the end of the day, we're all just "one guy with an opinion." But clearly, the hard numbers show that the computer models they used in the beginning were wrong. The powers-that-be are starting to admit that now. Unfortunately, in the mind of the general public, *WE* haven't changed our internal computer models and we still believe and hold to what we were told in the beginning about how horribly contagious COVID-19 was. And it isn't.
As you know by now, I'm a bit more pessimistic about all this than you. Perhaps it is my location. My state had the worst day of this pandemic yesterday in terms of number of cases diagnosed, number admitted to the hospital and number of deaths. Since things have been shut down for a month and our worst (if it is indeed we just peaked) is just hitting, I'm not optimistic that things will change considerably in the next two weeks.
I do agree that things should be loosened up (at each states discretion) but I can't see us going back to full normal at the first of May. For one, those who are in the high risk category like my grandmother can't quarantine herself from those of us who aren't. She still needs us younger healthier people to help her get through day to day. So if we are no longer quarantining ourselves, the possibility of passing it on to her is much much higher. I'm not staying at home and not going out for my benefit, I'm doing it for her and others like her.
Since other countries like Korea have already seen a second wave after loosening restrictions, I don't think enough have been infected yet to get herd immunity, especially with almost every state shut down these days. Again, the reason we shut down wasn't to quickly develop herd immunity but to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed with patients. Herd immunity might take us a years at this infection rate.
I think with proper procedures in place however, that some states can and should start loosening the restrictions gradually. I'm pretty sure in Iowa, we won't be attending any gatherings of more than 10 people until fall at the earliest. School will also be cancelled until then. Many states have already done the latter so it is impossible to return to normal until fall.
I should also note, that as a student of history, the closest example we have to what is going on now is the Spanish Flu pandemic of the early 1900's. The first wave came in the spring of 1918 and petered out when summer hit. That fall, it came back and was by far much deadlier than the spring pandemic. It died off over winter and came back the following spring, again worse than the previous spring. All this happened in a time with far less people and far less connections globally. Hopefully with our increased knowledge of viruses and pandemics, this won't repeat but I think it is worthy of being aware.
I sympathize, Ed. But let's look at the hard numbers for your state, and then talk about some "soft" numbers.
Right now, Iowa has approximately 3,155,000 residents. Of them, 2,000 have come back as testing positive for COVID-19. So far, 53 people have died, mostly all over on the east end of the state. I would've thought the Des Moines area would have more deaths, but whatever...
Dividing the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases gives us a mortality rate of 2.6% - we must add, "so far." It's about the same as for other states...so far. The question always is: Will that percentage stay the same? Or will the number of deaths per "positive" person go up? I'm guessing that ratio will stay the same, between 2% and 3%. But I'm no statistician or doctor.
So, with 2,000 people infected with COVID-19, that's .06% of the whole population of the state (53 / 3,155,000). Point-zero-six percent. Little over half of a tenth of one percent. So now the question becomes: How high will that number go before it's all over? Will it go as high as 1%?
If 1% of your state's population gets COVID-19, that'll be 31,550 people infected. If 2.6% of them die, that's about 820 people total.
Of course, the fear is that the virus will take off within society and the infection rate could "spread exponentially" as we are constantly warned. I've heard estimates that as much as 40% of the whole U.S. population could become infected with COVID-19. A scary thought for sure, although I doubt it would be that high. Personally, I think the computer models were wrong, and 1% is probably a more likely number. Maybe. Who knows.
I know that people disagree with me, but I'm of the opinion that we should open society back up to the way it was. We should still engage in practical personal social-distancing like we would in any heavy flu season - which we Americans were already pretty good at, actually! (Italians? Not so much, evidently.) Older people and those with underlying health issues should still self-isolate to the extent possible. Have someone else...someone younger...go to Walmart for you. Or use Instacart.
Although we can look back at what happened during the Spanish Flu pandemic, the same thing won't happen to us now for the simple reason that we know more about what causes such things to happen nowadays - and more importantly, how to prevent them. Sadly, the world didn't have people like Dr. Anthony Fauci back then, and the vast scientific community that you know...you KNOW is working night and day on developing a vaccine for this shit.
Like I've said, I'm an optimist. We have to have faith that things can work out okay, and then hope that they will. I do.
I think you have mentioned this in the past but the number of confirmed cases in Iowa (and other states) only represents a small fraction of the people who actually have Covid-19 which decreases your death rate percentage (a good thing) but means that a much higher percentage of the state is infected than .06% of the population. In our state, 48% of all positives are from individuals living in elder care centers, at least until yesterday when a meat packing plant had nearly 100 people test positive.
Not sure if you read my blog often or not but my wife is a front line physician and has seen dozens of people who were most definitely infected with Covid-19 but didn't meet our state's requirements to receive testing. This is because we still are in short supply of testing. In order to be tested one must have ALL of the following:
1. Fever
2. Shortness of breath
3. Diabetes, history of cardiac or lung problems
4. Be older than age 80
5. Have known exposure to someone who has tested positive
If you can't meet that list, you can't get tested unless you know someone who knows someone. Because my wife can't test them, mostly because they are too young or don't know how the contracted it, all she can do is to tell them to go back home and self isolate or if they are in need of medical treatment for the symptoms such as shortness of breath, go to the E.R. I find this entire thing quite absurd and it gives everyone in the state a false sense of security since they interpret the numbers you quoted as "everyone" who is positive and not just a small subset.
That's really strict testing criteria, Ed! I've had two family members get tested on fever/cough alone (they both tested negative) and an in-law relative who was tested in hospital based on fever and age, though they felt sure his fever was the result of another problem (his was negative, too). I know in some places here they won't test you until you've first tested negative for strep and flu.
Kelly - Yes I find it quite absurd. In the last two days, they have let those deemed essential bypass the other requirements and get tested as well but, according to my wife, there is no definition of whom is considered essential. I've pretty much lost all faith in the numbers of positive cases meaning anything and am only looking at hospitalizations and deaths, both of which are still rising in our state.
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