At one point, the "experts" were saying that for natural "herd immunity" to kick in, something like 60% of the population had to be infected. I don't know if that's still true or not; they keep moving the goal posts. You never know what numbers are going to come out of Dr. Fauci's ass (or hat, or wherever he gets them) on any given day. In any event, it's instructive to look at the raw numbers for where I live: Escambia County, Florida. Please refer to the chart above.
The Florida Department of Health reports that we've had 22,008 people turn up positive for COVID-19. But remember, it is generally assumed that *eight times* more people actually have the virus when you account for the asymptomatics. Conservatively, that would mean 175,000 people in the Pensacola area have already been infected. If we divide that number by the 315,000 people who live here, we get 0.555 which works out to be 56%. So we're getting really close to that 60%.
As you can also see from the chart, 372 people have died here. That works out to be 0.12% of our population. A little over one-tenth of one-percent. Oh wow, what a horrible, deadly epidemic! Now, statisticians will argue that such a figure is horribly inaccurate and doesn't take into account...blah blah blah. It doesn't matter. The number of new infections and deaths are rising so slowly that using the raw data is perfectly fine to give us a snapshot of what the virus is doing right now, today. In other words, deaths have not gone up "EXPONENTIALLY!!!!" as some feared and predicted.
One last calculation: Percent of infected people who've died. Now it gets tricky. Do we use the "official" number of people who've tested positive? Or do we use the "people who've tested positive times eight" number? For the sake of argument, let's use the latter. 372 divided by 175,000 equals 0.021, or 2.1%. So basically, 2% of the people who get coronavirus die from coronavirus. Turn that around - 98% of people who get coronavirus survive.
You know what? I never get the flu. I mean *never*. At this point, I'll take my chances with getting the coronavirus. I don't believe in asymptomatic spread, and so trust me, the minute I start feeling sick I'll self-quarantine. And just to be on the safe side, I'll cover my coughs and sneezes...LIKE I'VE BEEN DOING ALL MY LIFE. Meanwhile, I'm going to continue to live that life.
I suggest you do the same. Happy New Year!
3 comments:
I suspect the "8X" factor was not very accurate. If you take eight times the number of positive cases identified in our county, you would end up with 109% of us having had the virus.
Using 1X as the factor, we are nearly 15% of our county here so we are somewhere north of that number in reality. Just going by gut and those I know around me, I would guess we are probably close to 30% have had it so that would mean the factor is closer to 2X.
But by the time those of us like me who will be the last to get vaccinated have a chance at a vaccine, we may be approaching herd immunity by then, even at the slow burn rates we've been doing since last fall.
Ed, according to today's numbers, 21,000,000 people in the U.S. have tested positive for the coronavirus. Multiply that by eight and you get 168,000,000 - about half of our total population, which I think is "about right." We're getting close.
While that "times 8" number might not apply in every locality or instance, I think it's probably a good general number. I'd bet that your county is probably pretty close to herd immunity as we speak. At least, I hope so!
Yeah I'm sure you are right about the location dependency.
We have a brick and mortar testing facility right by my route that I drive many times everyday. Normally the parking lot is fairly sparse there but I noticed yesterday and the day before that it was packed with people cruising around looking for spots so I'm expecting our post Christmas surge is starting. Part of me likes to see that because as you are pointing out, it is bringing us closer to herd immunity all the time.
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