CORONAVIRUS - NEW YEAR'S EVE UPDATE

As for the coronavirus...heyyy, it's been a while since we talked about it!  So let's.

At one point, the "experts" were saying that for natural "herd immunity" to kick in, something like 60% of the population had to be infected.  I don't know if that's still true or not; they keep moving the goal posts.  You never know what numbers are going to come out of Dr. Fauci's ass (or hat, or wherever he gets them) on any given day.  In any event, it's instructive to look at the raw numbers for where I live: Escambia County, Florida.  Please refer to the chart above.

The Florida Department of Health reports that we've had 22,008 people turn up positive for COVID-19.  But remember, it is generally assumed that *eight times* more people actually have the virus when you account for the asymptomatics.  Conservatively, that would mean 175,000 people in the Pensacola area have already been infected.  If we divide that number by the 315,000 people who live here, we get 0.555 which works out to be 56%.  So we're getting really close to that 60%.

As you can also see from the chart, 372 people have died here.  That works out to be 0.12% of our population.  A little over one-tenth of one-percent.  Oh wow, what a horrible, deadly epidemic!  Now, statisticians will argue that such a figure is horribly inaccurate and doesn't take into account...blah blah blah.  It doesn't matter.  The number of new infections and deaths are rising so slowly that using the raw data is perfectly fine to give us a snapshot of what the virus is doing right now, today.  In other words, deaths have not gone up "EXPONENTIALLY!!!!" as some feared and predicted.

One last calculation: Percent of infected people who've died.  Now it gets tricky.  Do we use the "official" number of people who've tested positive?  Or do we use the "people who've tested positive times eight" number?  For the sake of argument, let's use the latter.  372 divided by 175,000 equals 0.021, or 2.1%.  So basically, 2% of the people who get coronavirus die from coronavirus.  Turn that around - 98% of people who get coronavirus survive.  

You know what?  I never get the flu.  I mean *never*.  At this point, I'll take  my chances with getting the coronavirus.  I don't believe in asymptomatic spread, and so trust me, the minute I start feeling sick I'll self-quarantine.  And just to be on the safe side, I'll cover my coughs and sneezes...LIKE I'VE BEEN DOING ALL MY LIFE.  Meanwhile, I'm going to continue to live that life.  

I suggest you do the same.  Happy New Year!

Suddenly I See

Country singer KT Oslin died the other day; she was 76.  When I heard the news, I initially thought it was another singer, KT Tunstall who died, but the latter KT is much younger and is still with us.  It reminded me of a funny story though.

Picture it:  We're in Brewster, Washington back in 2012, not long after I met my friend Brandon Arago.  We both love music, and over the years have turned each other on to various artists and songs. Brandon is more of a heavy-metal kind of guy.  But like the saying goes, you can't judge a book... 

This one particular time, I came to him with a song and music video I'd just discovered that I was certain he didn't know of.  It was KT Tunstall's "Suddenly I See" - a bouncy, extremely catchy tune about female empowerment.  I love the song and the very creative music video that she made for it.

Anyway, I said, "Hey Brandon, listen to this!" and hit "play."  Within literally two notes (I swear), Brandon screamed, "AAARRRGGHHH!  KT Tunstall...turn it off...TURN IT OFF!"  He was holding his fingers in his ears and had an expression on his face like I was performing an appendectomy on him without anesthesia.  Kind of like the expression peope get when forced to listen to Nickelback, same thing.

Apparently, the song was from 2006.  I'm always late in discovering music.  And in 2006, a teenage Brandon was working on the ground/maintenance crew at Giants Stadium in New Jersey.  KT Tunstall was set to perform in concert one night, and Brandon and his crew were getting the place set up during KT's sound-check.  The song she used to calibrate the mics and speakers and such was, "Suddenly I See."  Over and over.  And Over.  Brandon said, "I must've heard that damn song a hundred times.  I hate it!"

I must admit that Brandon has turned me on to way more music and artists than I have recommended to him.  It was he who introduced me to the group, Stick Figure whose album "Set In Stone" literally changed my life.  But back then it was funny how he'd heard of KT Tunstall and her song when I didn't think it possible.

And so here, for your listening and viewing pleasure (I hope!) is KT Tunstall with "Suddenly I See."

Car Smells

A lot of Uber drivers eat in their cars, but I don't.  I don't want the car smelling like food.  Which is also why I don't do Door Dash, Uber Eats, or any of the other food-delivery services.  It's bad enough that the car smells like me.  I don't need people getting in and going, "So you had McDonalds for lunch, eh?"  And then I'd go, "Uhhhhh yeah, *four hours* ago!"  The smell of fast food does linger.

Having said that, yesterday I went through the Wendy's drive-thru.  For some reason, they up-sized my fries.  It's okay, I like Wendy's fries.  I went over to the airport to sit in the queue and eat.  Since I wasn't number one, and this is Pensacola and not LAX, I knew I had some time to scarf down my oh-so-healthy lunch (with the windows and sunroof open) before I got a run.  

Upon pulling said container of upsized fries out of the bag, the damn thing literally exploded!  Don't ask me how.  I mean, fries went everywhere! What the...!  Mostly all over my passenger seat and a few on the floorboard.  I rounded up most of them, but one little bugger slid down between the seat and the center console. I tried to fish it out with my crossword puzzle pen, but it only got worse.  Then I dropped the pen down there too.  Now I had a french fry *and* a pen lost in the bowels of my car.  The errant fry had slipped down *under* the seat track, out of sight and very inaccessible.  It was *GONE* baby!  Dammit.  Now I'd have to go home and take the passenger seat out.  Don't want no decomposing french fry stinking up my car.  I finished out the day, angry at myself for not being more careful.

And so this morning I figured I'd try something.  I straightened out an old wire coat hanger and slid it in from the front, between the console and the seat track and floorboard.  And by Jove, that did the trick!  It worked a treat, as the Brits say.  That little french fry fucker came pooping right out the back of the seat track, along with my ballpoint pen, thankfully, as I wasn't done with the crossword puzzle yet, and also a dime and a penny, which is odd, because I can't remember the last time I carried any coin change at all.     

Some drivers over-deodorize their cars with powerful air fresheners.  They must think the passengers like it.  They don't.  The passengers just assume the driver is trying to cover up the smell of the weed he just smoked.  Not me.  I just want my car to smell like car.  

Hypocrisy When We See It

1) California Governor Gavin Newsom recently implemented pretty strict lockdown measures in his state, and then was caught attending a birthday party at a super-fancy restaurant.  Initially, Newsom *LIED* and said it was a small gathering that was held outdoors.  Turns out there were 24 people in the group and it was held INDOORS.  Did Newsom exhibit any shame or embarrassment?  Of course not.

2) From the CDC we have heard conflicting, often contradictory claims.  In the summer it was, "Outdoors:bad/Indoors:safe."  Now it's winter and they say, "Outdoors:safe/Indoors:bad."  Or is it the other way 'round?

3) We are told that there are numerous ways of spreading the virus other than coughing/sneezing.  But we allow malls and big stores like Walmart and Costco to remain open, and it's safe - AS LONG AS EVERYONE WEARS A MASK!  Yet we do not see employees of these stores dropping like flies.

4) We know that in the U.S., if you die for whatever reason (e.g. car crash) and you happen to have the coronavirus, then your cause of death is listed as: CORONAVIRUS.  We know that this isn't logical, but we are told that it most certainly is the way it should be done.  In our tiny brains, we wonder if that's also the way COVID-19 deaths are counted in every country...and if not, perhaps that's why the numbers in the U.S. appear to be so much worse than everywhere else?

Many people have full-time jobs, and families, and other interests.  They don't personally know anyone who's either had - or died from - the coronavirus.  They're not obsessed with this disease and have not made a PhD-level study of it like so many "internet experts" do.  And if you consider my first four paragraphs above, all that crap adds up to a huge level of skepticism and confusion among the American people.  We see the inconsistencies...the things that do not make any sense.  And it is hard for us to know what or who to believe.  

We know and don't deny that a lot of people have died "from coronavirus" so far.  But we also know that if you're reasonably healthy, the coronavirus is just not a big risk to your life.  We also know that people die - some would say, "prematurely" from a great number of things every year.  And we know that sooner or later, everyone is going to die.  Logical, intelligent people understand that it doesn't make sense to quarantine the healthy to save those who might get sick.  Doing that cripples a society, and ultimately does more harm than good.  

So right now, if you're in any of those at-risk groups (which are well-known at this point), or if you're a type of person who is always so paranoid and afraid of everything, then by all means, if you leave the house you should take all reasonable precautions.  

The rest of you, get on with your damn lives.

Hunter Biden's Supposed Laptop

So back in 2019, Hunter Biden supposedly turned in a water-damaged laptop to a computer store in Delaware.  For some reason, he left it and never went back for it.  Eventually, the snoopy store owner (a Trump supporter) delved into the hard drive and found...supposedly found all sorts of questionable material, including some incriminating pictures (or videos) and emails.  But not only that!  Supposedly, the emails implicate Hunter's father, Joe (who was Vice President at the time) in some shady dealings...not only with Ukraine, but also in China too!  If true...IF TRUE...these are pretty damning allegations.  People like the President and Vice President are prohibited by law from making personal financial deals with other countries.

The computer store owner supposedly made a couple of copies of the hard drive.  He says that he gave the laptop to the FBI, and a copy of the hard drive to Rudy Giuliani.  Supposedly, the FBI did nothing with the computer.  Finally, Giuliani gave the hard drive to the NY Post (which by the way is the oldest newspaper in the country, founded by Alexander Hamilton if that means anything).  The Post came out with a big expose.

Suddenly, everyone scattered like the participants in a Zoom call when Jeffrey Toobin logs-on.

At first, the mainstream media basically ignored the story or actively tried to sweep it under the rug.  However, after the NY Post published their piece and that became national news itself, other media outlets simply had to say something about it.  All of them, and some high-ranking politicians (like Adam Schiff) were falling over each other, dismissing the NY Post story as fake, claiming with no proof that the contents of the computer were a "Russian disinformation campaign."  We can understand the politicians for making a claim like that, but shouldn't the media be more objective?  Is that too much to ask?  Apparently so.

For their part, the Biden's never denied that the laptop actually was Hunter's.  Nor have they denied the contents of the emails.  But they did call the whole thing a smear campaign.  That wording is curious.  Instead of calling the emails and such a big hoax, they used the term "smear campaign."  Why does this matter?  Well, a hoax would be something fake; a smear campaign might be factual information used in a harmful way against someone.  Hmm.

Then John Ratcliffe, the Director of the Department of National Intelligence (and a Trump appointee) came out and said categorically that the contents of the computer were genuine and *not* from Russian disinformation.  Although no official statements have been issued, "government sources" say that both the Department of Justice and the FBI agree with the DNI.

Okay...  But the story gets weirder.

For some reason, Rudy Giuliana showed up in Delaware on Tuesday of this week, trying to get the state's Attorney General to take the hard drive.  The A.G. did, but turned it right over to the FBI, which the A.G. said should be handling the case anyway.

So.  What's the real story?  Is this real dirt or fake dirt?  Was Hunter Biden taking money "for himself" (wink-wink) but funneling some of it to his father?  Were the other sketchy things on that hard drive genuine?  If so, both Biden's are in a heap o'trouble.

This whole situation is very strange.  To me, it all shakes out as dirty politics as usual.  I look at it this way: Donald Trump has had to endure four years of the Democrats using every trick at their disposal to undermine and nullify his presidency.  He is pissed, and undoubtedly wants to get back at the people who've been against him.  I think that the Democrats didn't know who they were dealing with.  Because when it comes to dirty tricks and getting back at people, Donald Trump is a master.

Life On The Gulf Coast

Every area of the country has its downside.  California has earthquakes and mudslides and forest fires.  The midwest has tornadoes.  And New Jersey has...well...just being New Jersey is bad enough!  

Down here on the gulf coast we get hurricanes.  (We don't even worry about tropical storms.)  During hurricane season (June through October), we anxiously watch the tropics for these inexplicable low-pressure waves that are spawned in Africa and then come barrelling westbound across the Atlantic. 

A wave will morph into a "depression," then grow into a tropical storm and ultimately a hurricane.  Once a storm enters the eastern Caribbean, weatherguessers will then start to predict where it's going to go.  Might it turn and go up the Atlantic coast?  Or will it come straight across into the Gulf of Mexico?  Here in Pensacola, Florida, it is those latter ones that capture our attention.

The various weather services - and there are many - produce predictions of a storm's track.  They are collected into what are called the "spaghetti models" because if you superimpose them onto a map it looks kind of like a bowl of spaghetti.  People more knowledgeable than me then choose the path-model they think is the most likely candidate.  

Spaghetti Models from KHOU Houston

Right now we're looking at Hurricane Delta, which at the moment is a "strong Cat-2" storm down by the Yucatan Peninsula.  Forecasters say that it will intensify into a Cat-3 or Cat-4!  Its current track takes it into the Gulf of Mexico.  Then it's anyone's guess as to exactly where it will make landfall, except that it will be along the gulf coast somewhere, probably around New Orleans...and that could be 100 miles east or west of there.  As the crow flies, Pensacola is about 150 miles east of New Orleans.

There are many variables when it comes to hurricanes.  Overall strength, actual track and speed of the storm across the ground are the most obvious.  But upper-level steering currents and the temperature of the Gulf of Mexico also play a part.  And right now, the Gulf is pretty warm.

So yeah, we're a little concerned.  If there is anything hopeful at all with the approach of a Cat-3 hurricane, it is that the last hurricane took down the weaker trees and branches.  So maybe this next one won't cause so many trees to fall on so many powerlines.  That might be the only good news, but we'll take it!

The Easiest, Most Delicious Casserole Recipe

Do you like tacos?  WHO DOESN'T LIKE TACOS!  Why, that would be un-American!  

This is not a cooking blog.  But being a single guy who loves to eat, I occasionally come across a recipe for something that tastes really good and that even I, with my limited abilities in the kitchen, can cook.  There are a few "standard" dishes that I make when I have company over.  And I found a new one!

I came across this recipe online for a...kind of..."southwest salad" type of thing.  I don't know what you call it.  And of course now I can't find the video to share the link.  It is incredibly simple and easy to make.  And it is the most delicious thing I've ever eaten.  Yes, in my life.  It's so simple that even a basement-dwelling 20-something who can't even make toast can cook up this dish on a hot-plate and make it come out incredible.  Trust me.  

YOU'LL NEED:
1 pound of ground turkey
1 can of black beans (rinsed)
1 can of corn
1 packet of taco seasoning
1 big bag of shredded cheese (your choice)
1 big bag of tortilla chips (I prefer flour to corn)

OPTIONAL:
1.  Two avocados, cut up and put in a bowl with some lime juice
2.  Sour cream
3.  Salsa (mild or hot, your choice)

DIRECTIONS:
1.  Cook the ground turkey.  Drain, return to pan, add the taco seasoning and 2/3 cup of water. Mix it all together.
2.  Mix in the corn and black beans.
3.  Add a generous handful of shredded cheese.  (I use a "Mexican blend."  You, use what you got.)
4.  Cover and stick in a 350 degree oven for ten to fifteen minutes to let the cheese melt.
5.  Done!  Bring the whole thing to the table.  Be careful, it's hot!  Use a trivet and pot-holders.

NOTES:

You'd rather use ground beef or ground pork?  Knock yourself out.  In fact it would probably taste better with ground beef.  I just like to limit the amount of red meat I take in, and ground turkey works fine.   

If you don't have a fry pan with a cover that you can stick in the oven, no problem.  Once you get everything all mixed up, just transfer it to a casserole dish, cover with tin foil and pop it in the oven.  (But seriously, go buy a good quality fry pan - a big, oven-safe one with vertical sides and a cover.)

I serve this over broken up tortilla chips (nachos style).  Or you could serve the chips on the side.

After I scoop out a huge mound onto my plate, I'll top it with salsa, sour cream, avocado, if I have that stuff.  (And of course, MORE CHEESE!)  But the dish by itself is awesome.

I like the fact that there's no rice or potatoes in this dish, although you could certainly serve this over rice.  And of course, while you're cooking, you could add cilantro, or chili peppers, or onions, or cut up tomatoes...I mean, the list of things you could add to this dish is endless.  But me, I keep it simple.  The turkey (with taco seasoning), corn and black beans (and cheese!) all by themselves served over tortilla chips is marvelous.

This size of this basic recipe works if you live alone or there are only two of you in the household.  There won't be much left over.  I usually double the recipe.  It will get eaten.

No, this is not high-class, gourmet food.  You won't see Giada De Laurentiis making this dish on her Food Network TV show.  It's about as basic as can be.  But trust me on this... if you're in the mood for some easy, delicious comfort food, it doesn't get much better than this.

Willful Amnesia

I'd like to expand a bit on my post about Slavery just below this one...  

A friend of mine and I were talking about Slavery, especially as it applies to the U.S. here in 2020.  He sent me a link to an interesting article on a website called "The World," which is a part of PRI (Public Radio International). You can read the article HERE. 

The article is about Africa's role in the slave trade, and how it's only recently that Blacks have begun to come to terms with it.  It focuses on the story of one woman, Mona Boyd.  Ms. Boyd and her husband were both successful business people in Boston, Massachusetts before deciding that they did not want to raise their son in the U.S.  So they moved to Ghana. 

Blacks don't like to talk about the role that their own ancestors played in the slave trade.  But for every buyer, there had to be a seller.  And who was selling their own countrymen to the European buyers?  Right, African kings and tribal leaders.  Here's an interesting section of the article:  

“There is a willful amnesia about the roles that we played in the slave trade,” said Nat Amarteifio, a local historian who’s also a former mayor of Accra, Ghana's capital.

Let's be honest, the U.S. didn't invent modern Slavery.  It had been going on for centuries, certainly well before the 1400's when the Portugese arrived in Africa with guns to trade for people.  This was, we might note, also well before Columbus sailed the ocean blue.  Now, eventually the British colonies in "the New World" (later, the United States) would become a major participant in the slave trade, for sure.  So it's not like we're completely blame-free.  And we ultimately did abolish Slavery - at great cost. 

The point of all of this is that we need to keep things in perspective.  Attributing the blame for Slavery to the U.S. might make you feel good, but...  Remember who it was who willingly sold their countrymen into Slavery in exchange for guns and things that would help them in their never-ending wars against other tribal leaders.  It's time that somebody stood up and said, "Whoa...wait a minute...there are two sides to every story."

https://www.pri.org/stories/2019-08-20/willful-amnesia-how-africans-forgot-and-remembered-their-role-slave-trade?fbclid=IwAR1lieSw-87upXxJiI_9kdqxm1-UuFmzPHBarNW3o_3qu49RVrwNZbUGXxo

Black Privilege

There are these things called unintended consequences.  It's when you do something, and it has the desired effect.  But then there are..."other" things that happen as well that you did not predict.  Sometimes the unintended consequences are good...sometimes not.

Let's take Slavery.  Bad, right?  No question.  A horrible stage in American history...something for which we should be deeply ashamed but at the same time glad that we rectified a terrible mistake.

But...with Slavery, like with most things, it's not that simple.

First, let us acknowledge that America did not invent Slavery.  It had been going on for centuries and for the purpose of our discussion here, its origin is not important.  But let's also admit that for the concept of Slavery to work, there had to be complicity among the African leaders of the nations which supplied the slaves.  I mean, white Americans didn't simply sail over to Africa, round up a bunch of Black people..."Hey, you wanna go for a little boat ride?  Come on, it'll be fun!"...and ship them off to the States by the millions.  No, it wasn't called the "slave trade" for nothing; slaves were purchased from their original, uhhh, owners.  

So there had to be a certain amount of cooperation by those in charge at the time...meaning: other Black people.  Let's say it out loud: Black people sold each other into Slavery.

Okay, never mind the sordid history.  We all know that Slavery was a grievous mistake.  It was corrected.  And like it or not, the United States has ultimately become one of the richest nations in the world...a democratic republic in which anybody can pursue their dreams and "make something" of themselves....the place where everyone wants to be.  In fact, to be born in America is a huge advantage over being born anywhere else.  You don't see hordes of people risking life and limb, marching down to and jumping over the fence to get into, say, Honduras.

Modern-day Blacks are still angry about Slavery.  But we must ask: Where would they be without it?  Would they be living in Africa somewhere?  Would they even have been born to begin with, and would they have survived?  And if so, why would they even come to America?  (That one's easy: To pursue the American Dream, the equivalent of which did not...and still does not...exist in most of their home countries.)  

The unintended consequence of Slavery is that modern Blacks have a life that is infinitely better than they would have if Slavery had not existed. 

I'd say...and this may sound like perverted logic...but I'd say that Black people here in the U.S. ought to be damn glad for Slavery!  It was that horrid, despicable institution that paved the way for them to be born here in the greatest country on the planet.  One might even go so far as to say that today's Black people have, well, "Black Privilege."  

But don't tell them that!  They're too busy being angry, and telling us what an awful country the U.S. is, and demanding reparations.  Hmm, come to think of it, maybe they really should be demanding those reparations from the descendants of the African kings and tribal leaders that sold their ancestors into Slavery in the first place.

CORONAVIRUS: Jumping The Gun?

With regard to my post just below this one - in the interest of fairness I may want to rethink things.

I posted something similar on my Facebook page about the decreasing number of new cases and deaths here in Florida.  But ultimately took that post down.  I may have spake too soon.  A friend reminded me that the coronavirus testing centers in South Florida were closed for a couple of days to an approaching tropical storm.  So...fewer tests means fewer results, right?  And fewer results means fewer positive on the chart, right?  Right.

Now, given that it usually takes up to a week or more for the average person to receive their test results, I'm not at all confident in the currency of the published data.  In other words, if Florida reports today that there are, say, X-amount of new cases, how recently were those tests administered? 

As the storm trucks off to the north, and the testing resumes in South Florida, it will be interesting to see what happens to the numbers.  I will keep you posted.

CORONAVIRUS: Gambling In Florida

I think it was silly to assume that the coronavirus could ever have been stopped.  Yet many Americans did just that.  "If we'd only just stay home."  "If we'd only just wear our damn masks."  "If we'd only blah blah blah."  But viruses go where viruses go.  You can't stop them.

Anyway, "Flatten The Curve" was never about stopping the virus.  It was the philosophy dreamed up so our national health care system would not become overwhelmed with COVID19 patients taking up all of the ICU beds and ventilators.  It was we dumb Americans who made the leap from "Flatten The Curve" to "We Can Stop This Virus From Spreading!" We cannot; all we can do is slow it down a bit.

Here in Florida, our Governor DeSantis must be the biggest gambler in history.  He's hoping that our New Cases/Deaths curves will soon mimic those of New York State, Sweden and Italy (which are virtually flat).  For those places, the coronavirus is simply not an issue anymore.  Apparently, enough people have gotten it and gotten over it.

Governor DeSantis has got to be sweating bullets right now.  The number of new cases and deaths in our state has been steadily increasing, and he's taking a lot of heat.  By not implementing another statewide lockdown, and by not issuing a mandatory mask order, DeSantis has bet the rent, the power bill, the car payment, and probably his cigarette money on this pandemic ending soon for us.  Every morning, he must wake up to check the latest numbers, and while waiting for the site to update he's praying, "Come on, herd immunity...come on, herd immunity!"   

Well, maybe we're there...or we're about to be.  Check out the latest graphs below.  Florida seems to have hit a plateau, with new cases and deaths on an apparent downward slide.  We have to keep our fingers crossed that these trends continue.  Governor DeSantis surely has a lot riding on it happening sooner rather than later. If we're through the worst of it, he'll look like a hero. But if the trends reverse and start going back up, he will soon be known as the former governor of Florida.

Well, That's Bullshit!

Some of my Facebook friends seem perplexed that the American public just won't take the word of the government or government experts on some things.  Specifically, they bring up this hydroxychloroquine issue.  The government says the drug has no value in treating the coronavirus.  Some doctors and recovered COVID19 victims disagree.  My FB friends just can't seem to understand why people won't discard conflicting information and simply believe the government!

Well, I'll tell you why: It's because we've come to distrust the government.  We don't believe what they tell us, and don't believe that "the government" has our best interests at heart.

Take the esteemed Dr. Anthony Fauci.  As recently as a couple of months ago, Fauci publicly stated that Americans didn't need to be wearing masks.  Now he says that we all should be wearing masks.  Why the switch?  Well it turns out that his previous stance was because he wanted to preserve PPE (personal protection equipment) for health care workers, the people who needed it the most.  Ohhhhh, I see.  He lied.  But we are asked to understand and excuse that lie, because it was, you know, justified.  A "good" lie.

And the American people go, "Well, that's bullshit!"

We are told during this pandemic that we cannot go to church...cannot have funerals.  And yet people ranging from George Floyd to Congressman John Lewis get to have...not just one funeral, but MULTIPLE services in different states!  It's a double-standard that doesn't make much sense no matter how you look at it or try to justify it.

And the American people go, "Well, that's bullshit!"

I could go on.  Remember the THREE YEARS that the government spent trying to prove that President Trump was a Russian spy, and that his campaign actively solicited and accepted help from the Russian government to win the 2016 election?  And remember that even the Mueller Investigation couldn't come up with anything substantial to prove those claims?

And the American people go, "Well, that's bullshit!"

So, my naive Facebook friends, do not wonder why the American people have become so skeptical and cynical about what we're being told.  We see the duplicity.  We see the inconsistencies.  We see the double-standards.  We know bullshit when we see and hear it. 

And we see and hear it a lot. 

CORONAVIRUS: Sweden Update

Sweden never really had any drastic lockdowns, quarantines or mask-mandates.  The attitude of their government was to let nature take its course so that their citizens could quickly reach the so-called "herd immunity."  It was controversial because it was counter to the way nearly everyone else on the planet was dealing with the coronavirus.

As time wore on, Sweden's rate of infection and "case fatality rate" stayed high while in other countries (like Italy) their numbers had dropped off drastically.  The number of cases and deaths in Italy peaked around the end of March.  But then things started dropping off, and by the end of May, Italy was basically done with the coronavirus.  On July 19th Italy was down to just three deaths.

But in Sweden, by the middle of June, there was a lot of second-guessing and second-thoughts.  There was dissention within their government.  It looked like something different would have to be done.  And then...

On June 24th, the number of new cases in Sweden peaked at 1,803.  By June 28th it was down to 475.  Jump forward to July 20, Sweden is down to just 36 new cases. 

But what about deaths?

Sweden's death rate peaked in the middle of April and then began steadily dropping.  On July 20th Sweden had zero COVID19 deaths.  They are, for all intents and purposes, done with the coronavirus.  

Sweden has 10,330,000 people.  They are reporting a total of 78,048 COVID19 cases and 5,639 deaths.  If we look at the raw numbers, Sweden's "case fatality rate" is 7.2%, which seems quite high.  But really only 0.055% of their population has died from the virus.  The current number for the U.S. is 0.043%.  

So the situation in Sweden is not as bad as it seemed.  And at this point they are basically done with the coronavirus while the U.S. keeps struggling with increasing infections and deaths.  So in the long run, will Sweden look like the smarter people?

CORONAVIRUS: Media Hype Versus Reality

Long-time CNN reporter Gary Tuchman went out to Gulf Shores, Alabama during the Memorial Day Weekend (May 24-26). The beach was open and jam-packed full of people, young and old, who'd been cooped-up in their homes for the last couple of months.

Tuchman opens his report with an alarming falsehood. Coronavirus cases in Alabama are going the wrong way. They are trending up.  But the state is wide open for business."

Well...let's look, shall we? Here's the graph of the number of COVID19 cases in Alabama from March 20th until now.

As you can see from the above, during the month of May the number of new cases was up and down with maybe a slight upward trend.  But it was hardly enough of one to warrant Tuchman's dire opening statement, which was clearly aimed at making people panic.  (Then again, it's CNN so what did we expect?)

Then, sure enough, as we got into June, the number of new cases in Alabama did double, from about 500 per day to 1,000 per day.  But again, it was not a "big spike!" as the media is so often prone to breathlessly describe things.

As he walked around the beach, Tuchman was especially peeved that nobody seemed to be wearing masks. He interviewed many of them, acting at times like an angry parent upbraiding an impudent child. He asked one girl if she wasn't worried about catching the coronavirus? She said no. "There's enough wind and air, and it'll clear it all out of here." 

Doctor Tuchman (he's not a real doctor), clearly annoyed replied, "The wind and the air don't clear it away - there's no proof of anything like that!"

Well, maybe he's right.  So if that's the case, let's look at the number of deaths in Alabama since March.

Hmm.  There were plenty of deaths in April, but then they settled down to about 20 or less per day through the end of May and through June.  On a few days in June, Alabama logged zero COVID19 deaths. 

Well, this is a dilemma...for CNN.  Because here too, the number of people dying from COVID19 in Alabama does not seem to be related to the number of people on the beach at Gulf Shores over the Memorial Day Weekend.  I mean, it's been over a month; you'd think the number of deaths would have started increasing by now.

(Some have claimed that the beachgoers that weekend were made up of people from out of state, not just Alabamians.  But from the random people Gary Tuchman interviewed, it seemed as though the majority of them were locals.)

Here's the problem: People are not stupid.  People understand that they are being fed conflicting information about this coronavirus.  They know intuitively that wearing a mask outdoors...like out on a public beach...is just useless and stupid.

City officials in Gulf Shores (and neighboring Orange Beach) pushed back against the CNN report.  They took issue with its accuracy and reporter Gary Tuchman's agenda.  You can read that story HERE.  It's got the both the original CNN report and the Gulf Shores mayor's response on local TV station WPMI.

Parenthetically, people were quick to point out that the CNN reporter Tuchman was only wearing a mask when he was on camera or interviewing people.  His cameraman wasn't wearing one at all.  Hypocrite much, CNN?

People get to feeling like they're being deliberately lied to.  People don't know who to believe, so they believe no one.  Young people, especially, see through the bullshit and hyperbole.  People saw New York Governor Cuomo panic unnecessarily.  They see with their own eyes that even if we did nothing, this pandemic would not have been nearly as deadly as the so-called experts told us it would be.  (Obviously, I'm inclined to agree.)

Those in the media jump up and down and screech, "It's not the flu!  This could kill you!"  But it's not killing young people; it's not even making them sick.  To them it's basically, well, like the flu.  (Sorry.)

Since I live in a Florida beach town about 30 miles east of Gulf Shores, I can tell you that much like our neighbors in Alabama, Pensacola residents do not see the COVID19 as such a huge threat to their safety and well-being.  They have a certain fatalistic attitude towards the coronavirus, which seems to be, "If you're afraid of catching the disease and don't want to catch it, just stay home."

Here in Florida, the number of new COVID19 cases has been steadily and sharply increasing.  Thankfully, most of them are in the southern, most-populous part of the state.  Governor Ron DeSantis must be holding his breath, nervously watching the numbers.  I'm sure that every morning when he wakes up, the first thing he does is check the COVID19 hospitalizations and deaths.

The governor has re-tightened some of the statewide restrictions that had previously been relaxed.  Here in the panhandle, our beaches are still open.  But it may only be a matter of time until they're closed again.

Or maybe not!  As I've said all along, we shall see...

CORONAVIRUS: The CDC Finally Catches On

Oh, dear God.  So now the CDC is saying that the number of people infected with COVID19 in the U.S. is likely "10X" higher than the number of confirmed-positive cases? 

We already know this. WE. KNOW. THIS.

Some of us have been saying this for months, ever since the *three* studies were done back in April that showed that the actual number of people infected back then was between 20 and 80 *times* higher than was "officially" reported.

What this tells us is that the mortality rate for COVID19 is really, really tiny...like (depending on location), less than half of one percent.  Not three or four or even six percent like some people are reporting as gospel.

Back in April, New York State was estimated to have just over 20% of its citizens infected. You know what that would mean?  Herd-immunity.  You what *that* would mean?  It would mean that the virus had run its course.  And whaddya know, right now New York State (and Italy as well) are *done* with the coronavirus.  Done.  There will be no "second wave" as other parts of the country "surge."

I just wonder why it took so long for the CDC to come around and admit the truth?

Read the article HERE

https://www.dailywire.com/news/fatality-rate-plunges-as-cdc-director-says-covid-cases-likely-10x-higher?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dwbrand

CORONAVIRUS - New Cases and Death Rate: Is There A Connection?

Well the mainstream media is in a literal head-exploding panic, going crazy because the number of new COVID19 cases is increasing in many states.  They seem to think that this is some sort of catastrophe, or at least something unexpected.  Actually, it is neither.

We've known for a long time that the number of actual cases of COVID19 was quite a bit larger than the number of people who were getting tested and turning up positive.  

Back in April, the results from three different studies in three different cities told us that the actual number of people infected with the virus was between 25 and 80 times higher than the number of people testing positive.  So it stands to reason that if more people are getting tested, then more positive cases are going to turn up.  The logic of that seems to elude member of the media, who misinterpret the numbers and jump to some erroneous conclusions.

But okay, I'm not an idiot...is there more to it than just "more testing = more cases?"  Some states, like my home state of Florida are showing dramatic daily increases in the number of new cases.  Who would deny that some of that increase is the result of the unavoidable re-opening of society...bars, restaurants and beaches?  It's got to be a factor.  If we were to plot the age range of the new cases, I'd bet it would skew pretty young.

But by itself, the number of new cases doesn't matter a whole lot.  What matters is how many people will need to be hospitalized, and how many people are going to die.  And honestly, both of those numbers are extremely low for young, healthy people.  Many of them will get the virus and not even know it - the asymptomatics.  Others will get sick and go get tested, but won't be so sick that they require hospitalization.  Fewer still will die.

So the fact that the number of new cases is increasing is not, by itself, cause for alarm.  By the way, of the last two people who've died in my county, one was a 100 year-old woman in a nursing home.  Yes, they say she died OF CORONAVIRUS.  Now isn't that stupid?  And Dr. Fauci seems totally baffled by the fact that we're a skeptical society that distrusts so-called science and "authority figures."  Here's why, Doc: We Americans know bullshit when we smell it.  And we've been smelling it a lot throughout this whole pandemic.

I've been tracking the COVID19 numbers for a while now, internationally, nationally here in the U.S., and locally on state and county levels.  What has been frustrating is that there seems to be no correlation between the number of new cases and the number of deaths.  We "know" that if you're going to die from coronavirus, it'll take a month - maybe a little more from the time you contract the disease.  So COVID19 deaths "lag" behind the new cases by a bit...if that theory holds.

In fact, generally speaking, as the number of new cases goes up, the death rate is going down.  As an example, let's look at the state of Washington.  They had a peak of new cases around the end of March.  Conventional wisdom would tell us that Washington "should" have seen a spike in deaths around the end of April.  But the number of deaths peaked around the same time and has been on a downward slide ever since.  Compare the two charts below and see if you can come up with some sort of correlation, because I can't.

Even more confusing are the numbers for Florida.  Check 'em out!

Again, I cannot see a correlation between the two graphs.  They don't seem to be related at all.  I don't know what to make of it.  The number of new cases (blue chart) reached a peak on June 20th.  Then we've had two consecutive days of decline.  Is this the start of a trend?  Who can say.

The news media would like us all to panic and go back into lockdown-mode.  They throw catchphrases around like "second wave" as if they know what they're talking about.  On the contrary, I believe that some states are still in their  "first wave."  And if they keep trying to "tamp the virus down" they're only going to extend the time period that the people in that state suffer from the disease.  It's probably better to do like New York did and get everybody infected early.  

Given that there doesn't seem to be any connection or correlation between the number of new COVID19 cases and the death rate, the question will now be whether this huge SPIKE!! that the media is panicking over will translate into more deaths?  I'm guessing that it won't.

If I were Florida Governor DeSantis, I wouldn't do a thing just yet.  I'd let this play out.  Just because more positive test cases are turning up doesn't mean we all have to go back and shelter-in-place like last time.

CORONAVIRUS: Herd Immunity At Last?

Okay, okay, here’s the deal: Nobody…NOBODY really knows or can say with accuracy how many people have been infected by COVID19. The problem is those who are asymptomatic. If you have the virus but don’t know it and don’t show any symptoms, do you even exist? Well, as far as coronavirus researchers are concerned, no. So-called heath “experts” talk about “contact tracing” and “antibody testing.” But neither of those can do one damn thing to prevent the spread of the disease.

The World Health Organization initially said that transmission from one asymptomatic to another was not a big thing. Now they’re “revisiting” that stance. But again, the problem is: How many asymptomatics are out there?

Well, what does all this mean?  

Doctors in Italy now claim that the coronavirus is virtually gone. Gone! They say that the coronavirus weakens as it transmits from person to person and now, the “viral load” they are seeing in people being tested is virtually negligible. This is kind of illogical, and those health “experts” are scrambling to counter the claims of the Italian doctors. But the evidence is clear. Just look at the graphs of new cases and deaths in Italy and you’ll see that the virus is dying off.

Why is this happening? We are told that this is not how viruses usually behave. Well, Italy was hit pretty hard by the coronavirus in the beginning. It spread through their society quickly and efficiently, and did overwhelm their health care system.

With a population of 60,000,000 people, Italy now claims a total of 236,000 confirmed cases and 34,043 deaths. Using simple math and divide the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases, we get a raw case-mortality rate of 14.4%, which is alarmingly high. But that would also mean that only 4% of their population has been infected (236,000 divided by 60 million). We know that’s not right. Many, many more people in Italy must be infected with COVID19 than those who test positive. And now Italian doctors say that the virus is pretty much gone. And that appears to be the case; you cannot argue with the data.

Here in the U.S., most states are seeing a gradual increase in the number of new cases. Some people use scary words like “spike” and “surge” or “second wave” for certain states, but if you look at the actual numbers since the beginning of the outbreak, you would not use those terms. And if you don’t believe me, the Google will provide up-to-date graphs (the same ones I publish here) for all fifty states and most countries on the planet. Pick a location and look at its graph and stats .

When you do, you’ll see that most of the states in the U.S. have curves that are either: flat; increasing slowly; or decreasing slowly. Trends are generally hard to discern because the numbers are always up and down.  There are usually no big changes one way or the other. Except for…well, except for one state: New York.

The State of New York has 19,400,000 people. They report 381,000 confirmed cases of COVID19 and 25,000 deaths. This gives them a case-mortality rate of 6.6%, with only about 2% of their population infected. But as with Italy, we know those numbers don’t tell the full story. Because again, nobody knows the actual numbers.

Check out the graphs for New York State.

Pretty incredible, right?  No other state is seeing such a noticeable trend.  

New York’s arrogant Governor Andrew Cuomo takes credit for this. He believes that his intelligent lockdown policies along with the cooperation of all New Yorkers is what is responsible for this falling-off of new cases and deaths. Me? I’m not so sure. In densely-populated New York City, they never did shut down their mass-transit system. Is anyone willing to say that was not one of the reasons they had so many cases and deaths so quickly?

Maybe…just maybe…Italy and New York State reached a level of “herd immunity” more quickly than other nations or states? Maybe Italy and New York State are just “ahead of the curve,” so to speak. If so, it tells us something very important. And that is, states that have not reached herd-immunity by now still have a long way to go before the virus begins to abate. In a very weird way, Italy and New York State “got lucky.” They went through the worst early on, and for them the problem appears to be disappearing.

Enough Is Enough

It was about this same time back in 2011 that I arrived in Brewster, Washington to begin my summer flying job drying cherries in ancient Sikorsky helicopters. I did not expect that it would last nine seasons, but it did. The people I met and got to know, and those I worked with were great, the actual work was easy and I had way too much fun. It kept me going back, summer after summer.

The trouble was that up until that time, I had a pretty fun life here in Pensacola, Florida, especially in the summer! My friends down here like hiking, camping, and canoeing/kayaking – you know, outdoor stuff. And the time to do that stuff is in the summer. Not to mention that I like to go on motorcycle trips. And it’s not that it’s too cold to ride in our “winter,” but the days are just too damn short and I don’t like riding at night anymore.

At first, I only went up to Washington for a couple of months. The cherry season only runs from about June through early August. But there is much to do to get the helicopters and equipment ready for the upcoming season, and then there’s a lot to do to de-mobilize everything and get it put away. The company consists of the owner and his adult son; they need help. So I started going up earlier and earlier, and staying later and later.  It got to where I was spending just about half the year in Brewster, and half the year in Florida.

After my sixth season in Washington, I said that one would be my last. And I meant it, too! But come the next Spring, my boss in Brewster cajoled me into go back. And so I did.  And he did that again another two seasons after that. Like I said, it was too much fun to resist.

But this year I did not go back up to Brewster. This year I officially quit. None of my friends believed me; they’d heard that story before, at least three times already. And they assumed that I’d cave and go back up again this season. But I held firm. This year, I’m staying home.  And yeah, I'll miss Washington.

The plan is to do more of the outdoorsy things I used to do before getting roped-in to my summer flying job. We’ll see about that. I’m ten years older now, and from a physical stamina standpoint, there’s a difference between age 54 and 64. But if I do nothing more than just ride my motorcycle(s) around and go to the beach a lot…well…that’ll be okay too.

And of course, ironically, as soon as I made the decision to quit, I got two offers to go up to Washington and dry cherries for other operators. I’ve written before about how tough it is to quit aviation. But sooner or later you have to put your foot down and say enough is enough.