All Eyes On Gustav

So Louisiana is bracing for the arrival of Hurricane Gustav, which has grown into a Category 3 storm – as of right now. The images above show the expected track. Gustav should “beach-in” somewhere just west of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The towns of Fourchon, Golden Meadow and Houma are directly in the path, and things do not look good for them. Not to mention Morgan City and Lafayette.

But let’s remember that the worst weather of a hurricane is on the right (east) side. This means that New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf Coast are in for it as well. With the post-Katrina rebuilding process still incomplete, one can only imagine what Gustav is going to do to this area.

The key will be Gustav’s exact track, which nobody can predict right now. A small variance either side of the projected track could have major – and disastrous - consequences.

The good news is that Gustav is moving fairly quickly: 15 knots (17 mph). That’s a good thing. It means that it should move through relatively quickly. It’s not just the strength of the winds that does the damage, but the length of time that those winds are sustained.

We’ve been holding our breath here in the Florida panhandle. Back in 2004, Hurricane Ivan was initially headed right for New Orleans – or so we thought. It made a little right turn and started coming directly north, ultimately making landfall just to our west. Gustav could still do the same, although it does not look likely.

The hurricane will hit somewhere. And it’s not going to be pretty. At this point, all we can do is hope and pray that the loss of life will not be great.